August 2012

With Ernesto barely gone, we now have another system to deal with.  Still unnamed, but likely to be called “Florence” in the next day or so.  Already, tropical storm watches have been issued for many of the Lesser Antilles (Dominica, St.Lucia, Barbados, etc)

Its quite obvious that this will now come into the Caribbean basin. Once there, who knows what will happen.  One thing for sure (or almost for sure) is that it will gather strength.  The reason being is that these systems “feed” on warm water, and water is much warmer in the Caribbean than in the open Atlantic.

Will probably post another update on Sunday ; by then we should have a much better fix about where its going.

Two days ago Ernesto seemed heading pretty much our way.   As of Sunday morning, Ernesto decided to stay on a more southern route.  A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Cayman (just raised a few moments ago) and for Jamaica but will likely be lifted later today or early tomorrow.  My guess is that this was done in an abundance of caution, since by looking at the path I dont see how it could affect us in any significany way.

It will likely effect Nicaragua and the Yucatan peninsula who probably get a direct hit.  Although with a TS or weak category 1, should not be anything devastating.

This is unfortunately only the start, since the “statistical peak” or the hurricane season is +-September 10, so we will likely see quite a few new storms being formed in the Atlantic in the next 8-weeks or so.

So August is here and I am unfortunately not making a post about Ernest Hemingway or some trip to Cuba, but of a looming storm.   From my memory, the last storm that actually threatened (or hit) Cayman was Paloma in 2008.  Since then, its either just been “lots of rain” or the storms have turned north heading mainly towards Bermuda or out to the Atlantic.

So here is what I am talking about.  As you can see, the computer models put it the center of the system close to Cayman sometime Monday afternoon or late in the day.

As of right now, everything is calm. People at the grocery seemed to be buying a bit more, but no panic or anything like that.  The general feeling seems to be that we will get something, but probably just a lot of rain or at worst a Category 1 hurricane.  From my now 5-years of experience with this type of weather, Cat 1 is sort of OK (but still no fun …) and anything above Cat 3 all bets are off.  The US National Hurricane Center forecasts, as of right now, at most a Cat 1.  Not taking any chances ; supplies are purchased and may go to my office if needed. Anyway, the next 24-36h should give us a much better idea of what will happen.

Stay tuned for more updates this week-end.

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